Global power shifts and Foreign Policy choices for Pakistan: #CSS 2024

 

Global power shifts and Foreign Policy choices for Pakistan:

 

·         The distribution of global power is constantly shifting marked by geo-political and geo -economic realities.

·         The US appeared as a global leader in the Post World 2 era by establishing the global liberal Orders,

·         This means US created and enforced the rules of a Liberal International Order.

·         The purpose of this Liberal International Order was to bring rules-based mechanism of global Institutions, which govern inter-state relations.

·         This rule based International Orders reflects the centrality of a worldview based on western –led liberal democratic values.

·         Global institutions such as the United Nations, the World Bank (WB), IMF, WTO, NATO and other such mechanisms became the ground for global rules-based order.

·         The demise of bipolarity was illustrated as a triumph of liberalism led by US hegemonic designs

·         The US projected its power globally by encompassing economic interdependence, multilateral rules and institutions, democratic political systems, and values and norms (especially universal human rights

The Rise of the Rest:

·         The rise of the rest, notably, the Chinese vision reflected in its BRI has defied the US global hegemony.

·         China’s growing wealth and power, Russia’s revive and belligerence; Europe pursuit for strategic autonomy, India’s rise and its strategic balancing, turmoil in the middle East and its inclination to Asia suggest world is moving away from the US led hegemonic world orders.

·         The global power structure entering a new era of multi-polarity where almost all the regional states are aligning and realigning to capitalize on the emerging world order.

·         The global power contestation has pushed the states into technological competition and military asymmetries,lawfare,economic coercion through IMF,Financial Action Task Force,tehnological denials,economic slump and hybrid warefare

·         The geopolitical competition is compounding the challenges posed by non-traditional security threats thereby turning major powers attention away from climate changes, health, water, energy, food security, refugee crisis and non-state actors. The war in Ukraine has been a classic example of this where the disruptions caused by the conflict impacted the food energy security of several countries already struggling with inadequate returns due to the impacts of climate change.

Global Power Shifts TO Asia:

·         Butter not Guns determine destiny of Asia. China not the U.S holds the key in Asia.

·         The Asia-pacific region appears to be the most dynamic region of the world,thereby,becoming the center for global power.

·         The U.S pivot to Asia and its Indo-pacific strategy has been motivated by three driving factors

1.       Promoting economic growth

2.       Maintaining the balance against China’s growing strength

3.       Sustaining its long-term presence there.

 

·         Thus, the U. S projects its power by pursuing a policy of selective / deep engagements through bilateral, trilateral and multilateral alliance systems. Regional territorial disputes between states, the security threats posed by nuclear North Korea, the presence of undemocratic governments, ethnic issues and Drug Trafficking Legitimize the U.S power projection in a

Asia.

The U.S has further deepened its engagements in the region through multilateral platforms; the Association of southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the East –Asia-Summit, the Asia-pacific economic cooperation Forum, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and a new trilateral system among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.

·         TO counter China’s, rise the group of G7 countries have introduced a new initiative BUILD BACK BETTER WORLD (B3W) offering a parallel vision to Chin s’BRI for infrastructure building and socio-economic development to low- and middle-income countries,

 

China in parallel has achieved the status of the world’s largest global economy. BRI that reflects the shifting global order based on inclusive socio –economic growth and a more equitable multipolar system. China has established non- western institutions to implement is global vision a better world. These institutions include Shanghai cooperation Organization, a forum of leading economies such as Brazil,Russia,India,China and Soth Africa (BRICS), the Regional comprehensive Economic partnership (RCEP)-which embraces 30% of global GDP and is the major trading block that includes the largest economies in Asia. The Asian Infrastructure Development Bank are the initiatives that challenge the U.S hegemony in Asia.

 

Foreign policy challenges and options for Pakistan:

·          Pakistan has to frame its foreign policy by keeping in view regional and global events. As Pakistan’s security is directly linked with those events. Pakistan has to develop such foreign policy which navigate the evolving multi-polarity, continuously emerging challenges on short- and long-term basis seeking guidance from national interests.

U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy ;

·         The Indo-Pacific strategy of the U.S. is always having negative implications for Pakistan given Pakistan’s close alliance with China and cordial relation with the U.S

·         There are certain challenges which Pakistan need to identify clearly.

1.       The U.S view of CPEC as a strategic partnership more than an economic integration. CPEC offers China the swift access. to Arabian sea and Persian Gulf. Through CPEC,China will project its power in Indian ocean region, which makes the us uncomfortable.

 

2.       The designation of India as a net security provider has bestowed India with the of sense of entitlement to build military power beyond its national security needs. The US providing excess India to advance technologies which will create imbalance of power in region and placing Pakistan at a strategic disadvantage.

3.       Pakistan is facing technological denial and cannot cooperate in nuclear domain with any country except, China because of NSG restrictions.

4.        Indo- Us increasing relations in the Internataional institutions will result increase us pressure on Pakistan’s nuclear programmes. As India is close ally of US International institutions IMF,FATF,and Human Rights it enhances coercion and pressure on counterterrorism in Pakistan.

5.       There is history of Indian army false flag operation (Balakot attack), to malign Pakistan and justify Indian army aggression against Pakistan, India remains primary threat to Pakistan’s security. There is need that Pakistan must maintain credible minimum deterrence both conventional, and nuclear capabilities and AI led new technologies.

To counter us ‘s indo- pacific strategy Pakistan needs to maintain strategic neutrality by joining the countries of the global south instead of looking towards West Pakistan needs to formulate its policy by looking towards East. To integrate its economy into southeast Asian and ASEAN countries. Pakistan should design bilateral and trilateral agreements with Asian economies. In the security domain Pakistan needs to focus on expanding its maritime engagements with Littoral countries of the IOR in general and Arabian Sea and GULF SATES in particular. This will help to protect CPEC projects from non- state actors and terrorist attacks.